No Bitcoin Rally on this Christmas, Investors Hoping for the Next Year

    Pathik Bhattacharya
    Pathik Bhattacharya
    Published on December 26, 2022 1:10 PM

    Updated on January 16, 2023 11:02 AM

    Bitcoin's price continues to show minimal daily swings as it consolidates inside a narrow range with little volatility.
    No Bitcoin Rally on this Christmas, Investors Hoping for the Next Year
    Source: Unsplash

    The year 2022 comes to a close, and Bitcoin is continuing its sideways trading pattern following a difficult year characterised by negative circumstances. Despite Bitcoin's pullback, the asset price movement is consistent with a historical pattern that might provide the groundwork for the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new highs.

    In this vein, prominent crypto expert Vince Prince of TradingView noted that Bitcoin had created the 'Merry Christmas Cycle' in 2022, a pattern that has developed during the previous three Christmases.

    According to Vince's data, Bitcoin has always reached historic highs over the Christmas season. Furthermore, he added that Bitcoin reached numerous new all-time highs each year on Christmas Eve.

    With Bitcoin's current price ranking among the yearly lows, analysts claim that, according to the cycle, the first cryptocurrency has always produced new bottoms that conclude the bear market and begin the next Christmas Cycle.

    Indeed, if the current trend continues, Bitcoin will certainly reach $1.8 million by Christmas 2026. If the price objective is met, Bitcoin will increase by about 10,614% from its current price.


    Source: TradingView

    Related: Bitcoin Moving Slowly As Development Activity in Protocol Driving Steadily

    Bitcoin Price Analysis

    Bitcoin's current price is $16,873.40 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of $12,655,283,039 USD. Bitcoin has increased by 0.22% in the previous 24 hours. BTC is now ranked first on CoinMarketCap, with a market cap of $324,705,176,629 USD. It has a total quantity of 21,000,000 BTC coins and a circulating supply of 19,243,612 BTC coins.


    Source: CoinMarketCap

    Quick Read: What is Bitcoin Halving?

    Over the previous few months, Bitcoin has struggled to stay above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The price was recently rejected from the 50-day moving average of around $18K and has subsequently dropped. It will, however, make another effort to break above the 50-day moving average.

    Despite the continued battle with the 50-day MA, price momentum is not encouraging, as overall activity and demand are modest. Before launching a bullish rise, the market must regain the trust of its participants.

    In this context, the MACD indicator comes to mind: This indicator is going to turn green, indicating the start of a short-term bullish trend that might help BTC break above the 50-day moving average.


    Source: TradingView

    The present declining activity and low volatility are more visible on the 4 hours chart below. After a protracted downturn, the price has recovered from the $16K level and stabilises below the $17K barrier. However, the major battle for Bitcoin is now beyond this point of convergence.

    If the price rises over the stated level, the major hurdles to the $18K area will be a pullback to the 0.618 Fib level and the broken trendline.


    Source: TradingView

    The 14-day moving average line of the Miner to Exchange Flow statistic is shown alongside Bitcoin's price in the chart below. The entire quantity of coins sent from miners to exchanges is represented by this measure.

    A spike in the indicator implies that miners may be under pressure to sell to meet their expenditures during the negative period of the market. The price dropped dramatically each time the measure spiked, as shown in the figure.

    However, the statistic has lately dropped to a new multi-year low. This shows that the miners' selling pressure has reduced, which might be interpreted as a bullish indication of the price because miners represent a critical cohort among market players.


    Source: CryptoQuant

    Notably, Bitcoin has been influenced by macroeconomic variables, a position exacerbated by the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange as investors await a probable price bottom. According to Finbold research, historical analysis suggests to a likely Bitcoin decline to $9,000. Notably, the position served as the basis for Bitcoin's most recent all-time high of $69,000.

    Data from previous market movements suggest that Bitcoin may be due for another rise over the next three years. When looking at Bitcoin's previous moves, a pattern emerges of a year when the asset reached its all-time high (ATH) followed by a bear market year.

    Meanwhile, investors will be looking for a Bitcoin surge as the commodity strives to become digital gold. Surprisingly, in the aftermath of Bitcoin's last surge, crypto sceptic Peter Schiff confessed that investor interest in gold had waned as the cryptocurrency technology gained centre stage.

    Bitcoin FAQs

    Can BTC ever rise again?

    The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled in early 2024, and as usage rises and the halving approaches, a fresh bull run is a forecast, which is why our Bitcoin price prediction for 2023 thinks the coin might hit new highs and be worth as much as $75,000 by this point.

    Will all Bitcoins eventually be lost?

    According to Glassnode data, around 10% of the currency Bitcoin supply, or 1,857,721 Bitcoins, may never be discovered. According to some sources, it may be as high as 25%. That is billions of dollars in value that will be unavailable throughout perpetuity, lowering the cryptocurrency's circulation supply.

    Can BTC addresses be hacked?

    Cryptocurrency is a decentralized digital money that secures transactions and ownership information via encryption. Transactions involving cryptocurrency are recorded on a digital database known as a blockchain. The fundamentals behind blockchain technology make hacking into a blockchain almost difficult.

    Is Bitcoin legal?

    Although many countries recognize bitcoins as a kind of finance, just a few consider them legal tender. Outright restrictions exist in China, Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Nepal, Qatar, and Tunisia.

    How long will it take to mine 1 Bitcoin?

    It takes about 10 minutes to mine one Bitcoin, however, this is with perfect hardware and software, which isn't always cheap and only a few individuals have it. Most users can mine a Bitcoin in 30 days, which is more usual and reasonable.

    Can I mine Bitcoin on my phone?

    Solo or pool mining services are available for crypto mobile mining on iOS and Android platforms. However, Bitcoin can’t be mined using mobile phones as it is a very heavy process and requires heavy equipment.